Saturday, December 17, 2011

Watchlist Dec 19, 2011

Market sentiment will have a greater impact on how I trade the market this coming week. My personal feeling is that we rally into Christmas on low volume... Then again we may see profit taking before the holidays so who knows.

1. $RDN - A financial services company with a market cap of $271.3 million. Currently 18% of the float is short (23 million of 132 million). This stock has a beta of 3.15, enough to make you crap yourself if you are caught on the wrong side of this trade. There has been quite a bit of insider buying on this security ranging from $2.00 to $3.00 recently. Volume has increased for 3 consecutive days. The chart has a great look to me as it is approaching $2.00 range, where it tends to bounce for 83% in August, 72% in October, and 37% just recently. I see a potential squeeze of 19% on this next move if we bounce off of support here at $2.00. As for a selling point, I am going to watch the RSI on the daily because it seems like this bad boy doesn't get much above 55 before it takes a pull back. MACD isn't currently turning up, but it's a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used alone as a buy/sell indicator.



2. $NEWN - Talk about missing a move on this one. China battery company here with $12.95 million market cap, beta of 1.71 and only 3% of the float short. I see this as more of a momentum play than a short squeeze, however I could be wrong. I would like this one on a 50% retracement, back to $0.78. If this thing really gets some legs it will hit around the 50 dma currently at 1.25 and pull back from there as I'm guessing there are a lot of shareholder still holding on from past performance. This stock also doesn't have a history of actually holding gains, but maybe it can fill the gap from early November.



3. $PVA - Oil and gas company with a market cap of $203.86 million, beta of 1.90 and 23% of the float short. Recently they revised guidance for Q4 production and actually lowered guidance. This was released on the 14th, and there was some selling off, but after hours on Friday was intense, with one block of 2.9 millon shares thrown down, with over another 100k shares trading hands. Maybe someone can shed some light on this story. Not only that, over 1 million shares were traded in the last 30 mins on Friday all within the 4.40-4.50 price range. Last Friday, $PVA traded at a high of $6.43. At a current price of $4.46 you've got a nice 30% off buy in price.



4. $BWEN - Energy company with $103 million market cap, beta of 2.49. This is played quite a bit by momentum players. I see good entry at support of .66 or break of .78 to run with momentum. This stock has recovered multiple times after a couple red days, so it will be interesting to see if it can do it again.

No comments:

Post a Comment