Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Watchlist Dec 21, 2011

This past weekend when I put my watch list together for Monday I mentioned $PVA. Tuesday it ran 12%, and I still like the entry on this.

Here is what I said:

$PVA - Oil and gas company with a market cap of $203.86 million, beta of 1.90 and 23% of the float short. Recently they revised guidance for Q4 production and actually lowered guidance. This was released on the 14th, and there was some selling off, but after hours on Friday was intense, with one block of 2.9 millon shares thrown down, with over another 100k shares trading hands. Maybe someone can shed some light on this story. Not only that, over 1 million shares were traded in the last 30 mins on Friday all within the 4.40-4.50 price range. Last Friday, $PVA traded at a high of $6.43. At a current price of $4.46 you've got a nice 30% off buy in price.

Now that the stock has moved, a good entry point to enter would be $4.78 on a breakout with strong volume. I would add to the position on a dip, or back at $4.20. If it dips to $4.18 I would just cut losses and move on.




$RDN - I still like this chart, but it is a bit disappointing that this didn't move up more than it did as the market was moving pretty good.

Previous comments:

$RDN - A financial services company with a market cap of $271.3 million. Currently 18% of the float is short (23 million of 132 million). This stock has a beta of 3.15, enough to make you crap yourself if you are caught on the wrong side of this trade. There has been quite a bit of insider buying on this security ranging from $2.00 to $3.00 recently. Volume has increased for 3 consecutive days. The chart has a great look to me as it is approaching $2.00 range, where it tends to bounce for 83% in August, 72% in October, and 37% just recently. I see a potential squeeze of 19% on this next move if we bounce off of support here at $2.00. As for a selling point, I am going to watch the RSI on the daily because it seems like this bad boy doesn't get much above 55 before it takes a pull back. MACD isn't currently turning up, but it's a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used alone as a buy/sell indicator.




$REE - Metals company with $175.94 million market cap, beta of 3.45 (uhhh...wow) and 16.7% of the float short as of Nov 30th. Im sure there are just as many shorts still in this one, as we havent seen massive moves to the upside. They have about $64 million in cash, and no debt. Taking this one off the double bottom of $3.85 leaves you with basically NO risk...ok maybe a couple pennies if it drops below that, but the upside potential is much greater. First resistance is around $4.50 for me, then next stop would be $4.70. RSI is trying to make its way out of oversold, which is a good sign. Be careful tho, it could be a fake out just like in September/October time.




I still like the idea of shorting $BABY and $CRYP from yesterdays watchlist (HERE)


Another short play would be $DENN to keep on watch.

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