Watchlist Dec 29, 2011

Quick look into what I will be watching tomorrow.

$DCTH - No biased yet on this one. It seems a bit too parabolic - possibly unable to sustain movement, but I have plotted resistance points on the chart that I feel are appropriate. I would anticipate that if this takes a hit, its going to drop back down to support at the 50dma area.



$RAM - I've been over $RAM before and got my fair share of getting rammed in the face. I went back and reviewed some training on shorting...and what the heck was I thinking trying to short after the first big up day with such "positive" news. Rookie mistake...but lets be honest. A move like that, with the stock NOT being fully bought out like my other pick $WINN a couple weeks ago... It's gotta come back down a little. Historically it's what it does. Its all about timing, and I have been wrong on my timing on this one. I'm back and ready to take action. Volume is fading, and if the $2.93 resistance from Wednesdays session holds true, then we are on our way to shorting this thing and making some nice money. Like I said, I've been duped by this one before, so I'm taking extra caution and will have stops at the HOD for sure.




$BIOF and $PEIX - Gained some major momentum today and missed the move. I'm unsure what will carry this higher...possibly the attention from momo traders? Regardless, PEIX will be due for a pullback, and BIOF is a sympathy play of PEIX, so it follows big brother. I did a post on BIOF, and my opinion on BIOF is mixed. I'm still concerned about Cargill and his holdings within the company and what that means for the company's future resources. Read my previous post HERE

Watchlist Dec 23, 2011

Merry Christmas everybody! Hopefully Santa has some nice picks for us to get into tomorrow!

Volume will continue to be light until the new year in my opinion...so trade accordingly.

Still long 1k shares of $PVA at 4.78...that's it. Had a nice day trade today with $PHH today...Got greedy, and instead of selling for $900 profit I took $120. I say profit is profit!

With all of these stocks that I post, keep in mind that a majority of them follow the market as it moves throughout the day. Can't guarantee you anything...except a high five...maybe.

So I forgot to stalk $LIVE like I said I would... big regret having stops set on my short position at $5.73. Got squeezed out. I love parabolic moves. It's almost a guaranteed short opportunity days later. Sometimes they hold up, and I'm interested to see if this first stock on my scanner is going to hold up...$RAM.

1. $RAM - Oil and gas company with $152 million market cap. Nothing big on the short interest, but has a beta of 1.45. I'm watching this for a breakout of $2.06. Support can be found at $1.82. News came out today that $RAM regained its Nasdaq listing and former CEO of Petrohawk Energy, Floyd Wilson, will become its new chief executive after an investment of $550 million. Click to read the news HERE.



2. $PACB - Develops, manufactures, and markets an integrated platform for genetic analysis. Market cap of $158.4 million, short interest is looking nice with about 6% of the float short, and about 10 days to cover. Resistance is at $2.90, $3.15 (50 dma) and around $4.12 area. I want to see this hold at least $2.77 in a pullback, which is about half of the move it made today. A break of $2.90 with some solid volume will trigger an alert for me with a goal of $3.15 if not more (depending on the market sentiment). A similar chart is found with $AMKR.



3. $ZLCS has been getting a lot of attention lately. I would still like an entry around $1.27. Has a lot of shorts on it, but then again maybe they got out the past few days as we have seen some nice green action here. If I don't get it I don't care. Goal would be $1.53.



4. $KTOS - Market cap of $213.95 million, beta of 1.31, and 17.7% of the float short and 11 days to cover! Just wonderful in my eyes. I like this one on a pull back to the $6.00 range or a break of $6.40. Insider buys back in November were in the $4.70-$5.60 range. If we drop hard on a pullback, I won't hesitate to wait for a better entry lower.

(Intraday)


(Daily)


Also on watch: PHH, DVR, UVE

Watchlist Dec 21, 2011

This past weekend when I put my watch list together for Monday I mentioned $PVA. Tuesday it ran 12%, and I still like the entry on this.

Here is what I said:

$PVA - Oil and gas company with a market cap of $203.86 million, beta of 1.90 and 23% of the float short. Recently they revised guidance for Q4 production and actually lowered guidance. This was released on the 14th, and there was some selling off, but after hours on Friday was intense, with one block of 2.9 millon shares thrown down, with over another 100k shares trading hands. Maybe someone can shed some light on this story. Not only that, over 1 million shares were traded in the last 30 mins on Friday all within the 4.40-4.50 price range. Last Friday, $PVA traded at a high of $6.43. At a current price of $4.46 you've got a nice 30% off buy in price.

Now that the stock has moved, a good entry point to enter would be $4.78 on a breakout with strong volume. I would add to the position on a dip, or back at $4.20. If it dips to $4.18 I would just cut losses and move on.




$RDN - I still like this chart, but it is a bit disappointing that this didn't move up more than it did as the market was moving pretty good.

Previous comments:

$RDN - A financial services company with a market cap of $271.3 million. Currently 18% of the float is short (23 million of 132 million). This stock has a beta of 3.15, enough to make you crap yourself if you are caught on the wrong side of this trade. There has been quite a bit of insider buying on this security ranging from $2.00 to $3.00 recently. Volume has increased for 3 consecutive days. The chart has a great look to me as it is approaching $2.00 range, where it tends to bounce for 83% in August, 72% in October, and 37% just recently. I see a potential squeeze of 19% on this next move if we bounce off of support here at $2.00. As for a selling point, I am going to watch the RSI on the daily because it seems like this bad boy doesn't get much above 55 before it takes a pull back. MACD isn't currently turning up, but it's a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used alone as a buy/sell indicator.




$REE - Metals company with $175.94 million market cap, beta of 3.45 (uhhh...wow) and 16.7% of the float short as of Nov 30th. Im sure there are just as many shorts still in this one, as we havent seen massive moves to the upside. They have about $64 million in cash, and no debt. Taking this one off the double bottom of $3.85 leaves you with basically NO risk...ok maybe a couple pennies if it drops below that, but the upside potential is much greater. First resistance is around $4.50 for me, then next stop would be $4.70. RSI is trying to make its way out of oversold, which is a good sign. Be careful tho, it could be a fake out just like in September/October time.




I still like the idea of shorting $BABY and $CRYP from yesterdays watchlist (HERE)


Another short play would be $DENN to keep on watch.

70% gainer from last weeks watch list, and December 20 watch list

I am by no means a professional, nor do I fully understand the movement that some stocks make. However, I want to gloat on this one for a minute...$WINN. Last week I had $WINN as a buy (Here) in because of short interest, days to cover and how it had basically bottomed out. I entered the trade at $5.36 in my simulated act and BOOM! today it's up 70% after merging with Bi-Lo for $560 million. I suggested an entry at $5.28, the 8 dma. Below is the chart of entry and price today.



To say the least, those who were short (remember 17% of the float was short) just received a little wake up call... Ouch. Hope you didn't have your entire portfolio in there.

For those of you who don't know who Jason Bond is, you should put some serious thought into following this guys style --> Jason Bond. Short interest has a HUGE impact on how a stocks trade after being beaten down. This is one lesson that I will take with me forever, as it has helped me identify with higher probability the possible movement of a stock. Again, I'm not professional at it, but he is, so check him out HERE.

Anyway....

I lost some money last week from stupid mistakes, but I realize even more so now than before that as you keep doing your plan and following your rules, you will be fine...and sometimes come across these take over deals and score big time.

Now on to my watch list for December 20th. I only have a couple that I really like, so here goes.

I could see a drop in the Dow to 11,611 tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised. I'm not sure what tomorrow will actually bring, but if we go from green to red, or open red, I will be short biased.

$CRYP - Double top at $2.30 from yesterday and today. I would like to see how this one plays out, but if we break $2.30 with strong volume I will long this sucker along with the other momentum players. It did relatively well today...slow grind up I guess. This shot up last week because of a rumored possible merger which is kinda scary to think about if you're wanting to short this stock. It could end up that we get word that Amaya Gaming doesn't want to pay the $34.5 million dollar price tag. By January 12th Amaya must report their firm intentions on taking or leaving the deal. The price per share on the take over is proposed to be $2.50. Needless to say, we missed the bus on this one 60% ago, but momentum can still be played... Entry on a breakout of $2.30, with a stop at $2.20. I really want to short this if it cracks, but my gut tells me to not mess...especially with the word "merger" floating around.




$BABY - That stupid Justin Beiber song just popped into my head. I don't like Justin Beiber for many reasons, his music is one of them, this is another Timothy Sykes Exposes Justin Beiber Fraud. On another note, I am not against babies at all. I have two of my own. Im not against the neurodiagnostic equipment that $BABY utilizes in the diagnosis and management for babies...but I want to play the technicals here. $274 million market cap, short interest of 5%, and has had 7 consecutive days of gains (up about 17%). I am thinking this is due for a little pull back. Recent insider sells at $8.78 and $9.20 ...

I will take this short on weakness at $9.48 down to $9.10...second goal of $8.78. It won't likely get there...Stop on the upside at $9.83.

Watchlist Dec 19, 2011

Market sentiment will have a greater impact on how I trade the market this coming week. My personal feeling is that we rally into Christmas on low volume... Then again we may see profit taking before the holidays so who knows.

1. $RDN - A financial services company with a market cap of $271.3 million. Currently 18% of the float is short (23 million of 132 million). This stock has a beta of 3.15, enough to make you crap yourself if you are caught on the wrong side of this trade. There has been quite a bit of insider buying on this security ranging from $2.00 to $3.00 recently. Volume has increased for 3 consecutive days. The chart has a great look to me as it is approaching $2.00 range, where it tends to bounce for 83% in August, 72% in October, and 37% just recently. I see a potential squeeze of 19% on this next move if we bounce off of support here at $2.00. As for a selling point, I am going to watch the RSI on the daily because it seems like this bad boy doesn't get much above 55 before it takes a pull back. MACD isn't currently turning up, but it's a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used alone as a buy/sell indicator.



2. $NEWN - Talk about missing a move on this one. China battery company here with $12.95 million market cap, beta of 1.71 and only 3% of the float short. I see this as more of a momentum play than a short squeeze, however I could be wrong. I would like this one on a 50% retracement, back to $0.78. If this thing really gets some legs it will hit around the 50 dma currently at 1.25 and pull back from there as I'm guessing there are a lot of shareholder still holding on from past performance. This stock also doesn't have a history of actually holding gains, but maybe it can fill the gap from early November.



3. $PVA - Oil and gas company with a market cap of $203.86 million, beta of 1.90 and 23% of the float short. Recently they revised guidance for Q4 production and actually lowered guidance. This was released on the 14th, and there was some selling off, but after hours on Friday was intense, with one block of 2.9 millon shares thrown down, with over another 100k shares trading hands. Maybe someone can shed some light on this story. Not only that, over 1 million shares were traded in the last 30 mins on Friday all within the 4.40-4.50 price range. Last Friday, $PVA traded at a high of $6.43. At a current price of $4.46 you've got a nice 30% off buy in price.



4. $BWEN - Energy company with $103 million market cap, beta of 2.49. This is played quite a bit by momentum players. I see good entry at support of .66 or break of .78 to run with momentum. This stock has recovered multiple times after a couple red days, so it will be interesting to see if it can do it again.

$GLUU follows Zynga IPO and Watchlist Dec 15, 2011

$GLUU - OK. If you aren't in, you may be missing a nice opportunity. The best buy in price was today at $3.00 where there were over 725,000 shares traded at that price alone! The volume today was just about 2.6 million. Thats about 30% of pure solid gaming volume right at 3.00. I would have taken more up for sure, but was limited in trades.

Zynga, a gaming company, has its IPO tomorrow and is rumored to be around $12.00/share (a market cap of $9 billion) which beats estimates of $8.00-$10.00/share. There are multiple bull articles, and multiple bear articles that have been put out on Zynga and I don't care. It's all speculative until game day, and that is tomorrow. Zynga takes off, and we in $GLUU take off. I say $GLUU gaps up, dips then rips.

Relatively unbiased news clip ---> HERE

Resistance points are noted on the chart at 3.49, and up around 3.71. My goal is to get to 3.53 at least. Depending on sentiment I will stay or close.

An entry around 3.15 to 3.20 would be good, and stop below 2.97. Goal 3.53. R/R is 2:1

Intraday chart showing you the massive support that we have at 3.00 now.

$LIVE - My number one breakout or short play. A pop up to 6.40 area again with a failure to breakout will lead me to short this sucker. It held up nicely today actually considering the overall market. There is a daily chart below, and an intraday chart below. On the intraday, the overlay is $QQQ for the NASDAQ. This trades thin, and whipsaws like crazy, so if you play this one put on your balls of steel and be quick.

Watchlist Dec 14, 2011

Not much to say here. The FOMC reported today and said interest rates remain the same until 2013, yet the market takes a dump with multiple failed attempts to bounce. Report said they still see "significant downside risk." I have no idea what is coming tomorrow.

Here are a couple stocks on watch for tomorrow. Sometimes just gotta narrow it down to focus...

1. $GLUU - A good entry will be anywhere around 3.10-3.20, with a stop down below 3.10 support...say 3.07ish. Zynga IPO this friday (gaming company) and is said to cause a nice rally in $GLUU. I entered on the breakout today up at 3.44, still long. If we break below 3.07 I bail and cry for losing $500 on this trade. If things play out like I think they will, I add tomorrow morning on open, and we rally into Friday.

2. $TSON - Beaten down stock that is now approaching its 50dma. Volume increasing nicely over the past couple days. I like an entry on this 1.73-1.78... goal of 2.17 with a stop at 1.57.

3. $VICL - I like this chart. Great to have on watch. Similar pattern seen recently. Waiting to break upper channel to bust a move. Keep this on watch for a few days. Stalk it. MACD showing its due for a little pullback, so be patient...or take it on the break.

Watchlist Dec 13, 2011

Just charts to look at tonight. No time for big time DD on each stock, but these set ups are worth a watch.

Still long $MCZ, $MEG and added $ZGNX small for a swing trade.

1. $NTSP - Waiting on the $7.00 break. Entry around here provides r/r.

2. $CAK - Nice consolidation up around the 200dma, and a break of the 200dma to send it

3. $HLIT - trading within this channel. Watch for a break either way to signal long or short entry

4. $ZGNX - Small bio that is worth watching. $105 million market cap, with about 10% of the float short. Insiders bought $5 million worth of shares in September at $2/share. They have $70.85 million in cash, $56.01 million debt. Double bottom 52 wk low play here. I will buy more if it goes to 1.54, but if it drops below that and makes new 52 wk lows I'll cut bait and wait it out. More DD on this one later. Thanks @wiserguy1971

5. $MDW - Spec gold. Watch a break of the upper trend line or wait for entry below.

6. $DEXO - Nice pennant play. I consider a safe add on this one 1.35 area

7. $MEG - Currently still long. I think this one has some more in it.

Watchlist Dec 12, 2011

Missed my watchlist opporotunity for Dec 9 because of internet connection issues. Took a light position in $MEG for the gap up play come monday...and that's where we will start our watchlist.

1. $MEG - A communications company in the US with a market cap of $95.35 million, beta of 3.03, 2.2x average volume on Friday, short interest of 4.07 million shares (19% of the float) with 19 days to cover (as of 11/15). **Deep breath** That was nearly a month ago, and from the chart it looks like we will still have some nice short covering continue on Monday. Since the 15th, there have been 2,264,567 shares that have traded hands. If all of the shares traded in the past month were covers, then we would have about 1.8 million shares that have yet to cover. This obviously isnt't the case. We had plenty of buyers Friday, and will continue to have buyers come Monday that will force the shorts to cover. Short squeeze anyone? Be mindful of the RSI that is approaching overbought territory, however, keep in mind that if we have a continued influx of buyers we can stay overbought. Areas of resistance are marked on the chart.

2. $FCEL - Develops, manufactures and sells high temperature fuel cells for clean power primarily in South Korea, US, and Germany. Market cap of $121.02 million, 8.9 million shares short (only 8% of the float) with 12.6 days to cover. Earnings set for Monday after hours. Playing into earnings can be dangerous, so I caution you if you are considering buying or shorting monday intraday. That being said, I really like the chart, and feel that if earnings are bad, we will see a triple bottom at or around $0.84, which is where I will be a buyer. Earnings are expected to be a loss of $0.07/share this quarter, so if we see anything better than this I will consider buying. The company has had four straight quarters of beating estimates. Recently, there was a 50k insider buy from the director at $0.87/share, and over 100k shares bought up above $1.00 earlier in the year. Another thing to consider with this price movement, is the $1.00 effect that brings traders attention. First major resistance would be 1.03 for me.

3. $MCZ - Chart perking up nicely off of the triple bottom formed. Gaming company with market cap of $33 million, beta of 2.26...Broke out of its 13dma and 20dma that it has been trying to for the past week or so. I had this on watch previously, but now its starting to come into play. See my previous post for my thoughts on this one... I will tell you I think its only a matter of time before this one starts heading toward $1.00 again.

4. $GMXR - Mentioned in a previous post that I would enter at 1.41, however it never came down to the 13dma, but instead held up nicely on its 20dma. Entry on a pull back to the 20dma, red to green move, or break of 1.73 is where I would take this under my wing.

5. $KNDI - Market cap of $85.08 million, beta of 2.73, and similar consolidation to $MEG. Be mindful of position size. Avg volume is only 63k.

Also on watch - $PEIX, $EDAP

Disclosure - Long $MCZ, $MEG

Watchlist Dec 8, 2011

Well, sold out flat on the DEXO trade. If I were to get a grade on this trade, I would receive an R- for being a Retard. Anyway, on to the good stuff...

1. ENTR - I am looking for this one to continue to break out of this bullish flag it's posted the past few days. I entered on the break at $5.51, with a price target of $5.85. I love seeing stocks break out of range on 30 min and daily charts simultaneously...and to add to that, a breakout when the RSI is sittin around 55-65, it's like freakin Christmas morning. I would love if this breakout does what RPTP did here recently...


2. PEIX - Pacific Ethanol... Had some amazing earnings a bit ago. I think this one will be a good pick off the 20dma (1.19). I think it's good for a nice .30 gain at least in the next few days. Watch that 20dma tho, cuz if it fails there be careful.


3. GMXR - January effect or not, @wiserguy1971 brought this to my attention and I love it. We've seen some big insider buys here...nearly 150k in this month. When a stock takes a strong move up, trickles down a bit, and romps back toward the original direction it tells me its very bullish. I like a 1.41 entry here with a goal of 1.73 at least. It may run to 1.94, the 50dma.


4. CEDC - Great bullish opportunity here. Tappin on the 20dma is beautiful. 5.23 break will send it to 6.05 easy. ....... and as I write this, I just realized it is already at 5.65 AH's... Crap. Well. I'll post the chart because it looks nice and is a good example of bullish behavior. Could be a good entry on a pullback.
5. WINN - Short interest is 17% with 11 days to cover. I'll take it on a pull back to either the 8dma (5.28), or a r/g (red to green) move.

Stocks also on watch:

1. AEN -- currently long

2. OPTT -- wanting a short position

3. AEZS -- possible revisit to the 50dma or break of 1.82

Watchlist Dec 7, 2011

Still short $DEXO, long $MCZ $CIM

1. $CIM - 120k shares bought by insiders in the end of November. A fellow trader @otrain mentioned the "January effect" in consideration of my $CIM pick that I am currently long in (very few shares right now however). I knew some stocks take massive runs towards the end of the year with holidays and such, but didn't know of the actual coined term "January Effect". I don't plan on holding $CIM that long. But getting in now as it is close to breakout point brings momo players and with it passing its 20dma it becomes more attractive to other technical traders. The inside buying in the past month brings another group of buyers. All these together can be the perfect storm or an ugly mess.

2. $SVNT - Pharmaceutical company with market cap of $162million. Beta of 1.41 so thats decent...Short interest on this is 27 million, 43% of their float short right now and 16 days to cover. Good for a short squeeze with a good press release stating they cured every disease known to man...or more realistically just Gout. I would like to see this over its 20dma of 2.49 with volume carrying it over 2.54. 3.30 would be goal as bagholders will be wanting to get out then as well.

3. $ONTY - Decent amount of shorts still in this one, 31% of the float is short. Most definitely showed some short squeezing intraday. I don't want position long right now. Obviously missed the boat on this one as a nice 2 day swing, but it's worth a watch for a day trade or scalp.

$DEXO thoughts and Watchlist Dec 6, 2011

S&P warns 15 EU Nations on negative credit watch (Article Here). This started hitting Twitter around 12:44, as you can see a sharp drop in the market right after that. Then around 2:15 I'm guessing CNBC finally caught on and caused another sharp decline in the markets. The 2nd drop we rallied back and nearly recovered from, but for me I am bearish going into tomorrow. I just think we see a drop in futures and gap down in the AM. I don't have large statistical analysis computers that compute this for me...for me knowing that the markets absolutely freak out on any piece of bad news shows, and having the S&P threats out there...I just feel like we will see a gap down, or fade away from the open.

I may be biased because I have short positions in $SDS (S&P Ultrashort Proshares), $BAC, and $DEXO (still, yes. Still.)

Speaking of $DEXO, I went to short another 2k shares at $1.82 today. I wasn't able to because the security is now "Hard to Borrow". I called TradeStation and they still didn't have any shares to short that were available. I'm not mad about that at all. There are 2 real reasons why a security becomes hard to borrow after previously being easy to borrow:

• The price to borrow shares has become too expensive, so the shares are labeled hard to borrow. You then have to call in to see if there are any shares ... if you're really set on shorting.

OR

• The shares available to short are now NOT available because so many people are shorting the stock now.

The most probable answer to the shortage of shortable shares is most likely the latter, being as I called in and they STILL didn't have shares to short. Here is a 5 day 30 minute chart:

Obvious resistance at 1.60 today, and that is where I saw massive sell orders as well. I have a goal of 1.35 area if this sucker cracks 1.53 and fails on a bounce. If it really starts selling off, next stop for me will be 1.25 area.

1. HSOL - One of the picks from yesterday is still on watch as it tapped around the 20dma again today. I have learned from @bman_microcaps that plays that tap dma's and hang around that same area have great potential. Right now HSOL is trading between its 20 dma and 13 dma. I decided if this cracks 1.32 I'll cut losses and move on. I dont want to wait for it to drop to 1.12 to pick up agian, it's not a stock that moves fast enough. Also, if you take that most recent big green candle and take a 50% retracement on it you get 1.34. There you have it.

2. MAGS - Not lookin for a play on this one, but I recommended a short on it a few days ago if it stays out of the upper Bolinger Band. Though I can see this one recovering and breaking out, its a good demonstration of a possible strategy in shorting.

3. GFA looks good to add on a 20dma break with volume to confirm the move. This a home builder company in Brazil. Market cap is 1.25 Billion. The beta on this bad boy is 2.58 and short interest is only 3 days to cover, so don't expect a huge squeeze...but if this can break the 20dma with strength then you have momentum buyers jumpin in as well.

4. GBG - This is probably one of my top picks for tomorrow. I like the MACD action, the increase in volume over the past 3 days and close to bustin out of the 8dma and market cap of $392 million. I don't like that beta is only 1.02 and short interest is low, but those aren't essential to make a stock move.

5. GTIV - I like this one on a break of 6.35...day trade it or swing it to 7.40. If this doesn't break out I would say the 20dma will be good support to pick this up ... around 5.52.