Fresh Start: Jan 3rd stock watch

Man there are a lot of stocks that have some pretty looking charts out there. I want to focus on a couple that I have been watching.

1. ZAGG - $209 million market cap with a beta of 1.55 and short interest sitting at 11.19 days to cover. As of the short interest report on 12/15/11, ZAGG has OVER 44.80% short of the float. This for one, is incredible! The stock can only get beaten down for so long until people want/need to cover their short positions. The chart also shows a triple bottom play here off of $6.50 area. ZAGG is currently oversold, and MACD lookin to turn up. Gotta get position before some of these lagging indicators, otherwise you miss the move. I will add at $6.62, or on a break of $7.24 with a stop at $6.50.

November 14 - ZAGG beats on earnings by $0.01

December 21st - ZAGG guides above consensus

Now, ZAGG doesn't report earnings until March 12 (Estimate of $0.17 eps)




2. $HDY - I think we have one more day of possibility of positioning in here. I will bid somewhere around $1.26-$1.30 with a stop at $1.20. I love the idea of getting in on the bid on this one. The 9dma has been good support as it is trickling up. With 28% of the float short, at about 8 days to cover we are lookin at some good potential here. I think that this one may open up green and stay there, and if thats the case I missed this move and I carry on. MACD, RSI turning up on the daily and lookin good.



3. INHX - A break of 11.20 that this thing might want to breakout and carry for about $0.30. I dont have specifics on how to trade this one, but I like the chart and would take it as a day trade or scalp.



...My internet is being a piece of crap so here is just a list of the other charts that look good to me...

ALTH
BONT
UQM
PZZI
HW

Watchlist Dec 29, 2011

Quick look into what I will be watching tomorrow.

$DCTH - No biased yet on this one. It seems a bit too parabolic - possibly unable to sustain movement, but I have plotted resistance points on the chart that I feel are appropriate. I would anticipate that if this takes a hit, its going to drop back down to support at the 50dma area.



$RAM - I've been over $RAM before and got my fair share of getting rammed in the face. I went back and reviewed some training on shorting...and what the heck was I thinking trying to short after the first big up day with such "positive" news. Rookie mistake...but lets be honest. A move like that, with the stock NOT being fully bought out like my other pick $WINN a couple weeks ago... It's gotta come back down a little. Historically it's what it does. Its all about timing, and I have been wrong on my timing on this one. I'm back and ready to take action. Volume is fading, and if the $2.93 resistance from Wednesdays session holds true, then we are on our way to shorting this thing and making some nice money. Like I said, I've been duped by this one before, so I'm taking extra caution and will have stops at the HOD for sure.




$BIOF and $PEIX - Gained some major momentum today and missed the move. I'm unsure what will carry this higher...possibly the attention from momo traders? Regardless, PEIX will be due for a pullback, and BIOF is a sympathy play of PEIX, so it follows big brother. I did a post on BIOF, and my opinion on BIOF is mixed. I'm still concerned about Cargill and his holdings within the company and what that means for the company's future resources. Read my previous post HERE

Watchlist Dec 23, 2011

Merry Christmas everybody! Hopefully Santa has some nice picks for us to get into tomorrow!

Volume will continue to be light until the new year in my opinion...so trade accordingly.

Still long 1k shares of $PVA at 4.78...that's it. Had a nice day trade today with $PHH today...Got greedy, and instead of selling for $900 profit I took $120. I say profit is profit!

With all of these stocks that I post, keep in mind that a majority of them follow the market as it moves throughout the day. Can't guarantee you anything...except a high five...maybe.

So I forgot to stalk $LIVE like I said I would... big regret having stops set on my short position at $5.73. Got squeezed out. I love parabolic moves. It's almost a guaranteed short opportunity days later. Sometimes they hold up, and I'm interested to see if this first stock on my scanner is going to hold up...$RAM.

1. $RAM - Oil and gas company with $152 million market cap. Nothing big on the short interest, but has a beta of 1.45. I'm watching this for a breakout of $2.06. Support can be found at $1.82. News came out today that $RAM regained its Nasdaq listing and former CEO of Petrohawk Energy, Floyd Wilson, will become its new chief executive after an investment of $550 million. Click to read the news HERE.



2. $PACB - Develops, manufactures, and markets an integrated platform for genetic analysis. Market cap of $158.4 million, short interest is looking nice with about 6% of the float short, and about 10 days to cover. Resistance is at $2.90, $3.15 (50 dma) and around $4.12 area. I want to see this hold at least $2.77 in a pullback, which is about half of the move it made today. A break of $2.90 with some solid volume will trigger an alert for me with a goal of $3.15 if not more (depending on the market sentiment). A similar chart is found with $AMKR.



3. $ZLCS has been getting a lot of attention lately. I would still like an entry around $1.27. Has a lot of shorts on it, but then again maybe they got out the past few days as we have seen some nice green action here. If I don't get it I don't care. Goal would be $1.53.



4. $KTOS - Market cap of $213.95 million, beta of 1.31, and 17.7% of the float short and 11 days to cover! Just wonderful in my eyes. I like this one on a pull back to the $6.00 range or a break of $6.40. Insider buys back in November were in the $4.70-$5.60 range. If we drop hard on a pullback, I won't hesitate to wait for a better entry lower.

(Intraday)


(Daily)


Also on watch: PHH, DVR, UVE

Watchlist Dec 21, 2011

This past weekend when I put my watch list together for Monday I mentioned $PVA. Tuesday it ran 12%, and I still like the entry on this.

Here is what I said:

$PVA - Oil and gas company with a market cap of $203.86 million, beta of 1.90 and 23% of the float short. Recently they revised guidance for Q4 production and actually lowered guidance. This was released on the 14th, and there was some selling off, but after hours on Friday was intense, with one block of 2.9 millon shares thrown down, with over another 100k shares trading hands. Maybe someone can shed some light on this story. Not only that, over 1 million shares were traded in the last 30 mins on Friday all within the 4.40-4.50 price range. Last Friday, $PVA traded at a high of $6.43. At a current price of $4.46 you've got a nice 30% off buy in price.

Now that the stock has moved, a good entry point to enter would be $4.78 on a breakout with strong volume. I would add to the position on a dip, or back at $4.20. If it dips to $4.18 I would just cut losses and move on.




$RDN - I still like this chart, but it is a bit disappointing that this didn't move up more than it did as the market was moving pretty good.

Previous comments:

$RDN - A financial services company with a market cap of $271.3 million. Currently 18% of the float is short (23 million of 132 million). This stock has a beta of 3.15, enough to make you crap yourself if you are caught on the wrong side of this trade. There has been quite a bit of insider buying on this security ranging from $2.00 to $3.00 recently. Volume has increased for 3 consecutive days. The chart has a great look to me as it is approaching $2.00 range, where it tends to bounce for 83% in August, 72% in October, and 37% just recently. I see a potential squeeze of 19% on this next move if we bounce off of support here at $2.00. As for a selling point, I am going to watch the RSI on the daily because it seems like this bad boy doesn't get much above 55 before it takes a pull back. MACD isn't currently turning up, but it's a lagging indicator and shouldn't be used alone as a buy/sell indicator.




$REE - Metals company with $175.94 million market cap, beta of 3.45 (uhhh...wow) and 16.7% of the float short as of Nov 30th. Im sure there are just as many shorts still in this one, as we havent seen massive moves to the upside. They have about $64 million in cash, and no debt. Taking this one off the double bottom of $3.85 leaves you with basically NO risk...ok maybe a couple pennies if it drops below that, but the upside potential is much greater. First resistance is around $4.50 for me, then next stop would be $4.70. RSI is trying to make its way out of oversold, which is a good sign. Be careful tho, it could be a fake out just like in September/October time.




I still like the idea of shorting $BABY and $CRYP from yesterdays watchlist (HERE)


Another short play would be $DENN to keep on watch.

70% gainer from last weeks watch list, and December 20 watch list

I am by no means a professional, nor do I fully understand the movement that some stocks make. However, I want to gloat on this one for a minute...$WINN. Last week I had $WINN as a buy (Here) in because of short interest, days to cover and how it had basically bottomed out. I entered the trade at $5.36 in my simulated act and BOOM! today it's up 70% after merging with Bi-Lo for $560 million. I suggested an entry at $5.28, the 8 dma. Below is the chart of entry and price today.



To say the least, those who were short (remember 17% of the float was short) just received a little wake up call... Ouch. Hope you didn't have your entire portfolio in there.

For those of you who don't know who Jason Bond is, you should put some serious thought into following this guys style --> Jason Bond. Short interest has a HUGE impact on how a stocks trade after being beaten down. This is one lesson that I will take with me forever, as it has helped me identify with higher probability the possible movement of a stock. Again, I'm not professional at it, but he is, so check him out HERE.

Anyway....

I lost some money last week from stupid mistakes, but I realize even more so now than before that as you keep doing your plan and following your rules, you will be fine...and sometimes come across these take over deals and score big time.

Now on to my watch list for December 20th. I only have a couple that I really like, so here goes.

I could see a drop in the Dow to 11,611 tomorrow and I wouldn't be surprised. I'm not sure what tomorrow will actually bring, but if we go from green to red, or open red, I will be short biased.

$CRYP - Double top at $2.30 from yesterday and today. I would like to see how this one plays out, but if we break $2.30 with strong volume I will long this sucker along with the other momentum players. It did relatively well today...slow grind up I guess. This shot up last week because of a rumored possible merger which is kinda scary to think about if you're wanting to short this stock. It could end up that we get word that Amaya Gaming doesn't want to pay the $34.5 million dollar price tag. By January 12th Amaya must report their firm intentions on taking or leaving the deal. The price per share on the take over is proposed to be $2.50. Needless to say, we missed the bus on this one 60% ago, but momentum can still be played... Entry on a breakout of $2.30, with a stop at $2.20. I really want to short this if it cracks, but my gut tells me to not mess...especially with the word "merger" floating around.




$BABY - That stupid Justin Beiber song just popped into my head. I don't like Justin Beiber for many reasons, his music is one of them, this is another Timothy Sykes Exposes Justin Beiber Fraud. On another note, I am not against babies at all. I have two of my own. Im not against the neurodiagnostic equipment that $BABY utilizes in the diagnosis and management for babies...but I want to play the technicals here. $274 million market cap, short interest of 5%, and has had 7 consecutive days of gains (up about 17%). I am thinking this is due for a little pull back. Recent insider sells at $8.78 and $9.20 ...

I will take this short on weakness at $9.48 down to $9.10...second goal of $8.78. It won't likely get there...Stop on the upside at $9.83.